Saturday 29 June 2013

PREVENTIVA, A TERCEIRA SEGURANÇA

Gráfico: gtplanet.net


Muito se fala de segurança ativa e segurança passiva. Mas há uma terceira, meio escondida, da qual não se comenta muito, a segurança preventiva.

A ativa, todo mundo sabe, é a que dá ao motorista condições de manobra que possam evitar um acidente, como bons freios (com ABS para quem faz questão ou precisa) e resposta de direção, os recentes controles de cruzeiro adaptativos, as direções que intervém sem que o motorista perceba, as direções de relação variável, faróis potentes e aqueles sistemas de visão noturna por raios infravermelhos que detectam obstáculos (ou pedestres) a distância que os faróis normalmente não iluminam.

A segurança passiva, muito propalada, é a que minimiza os efeitos dos acidentes, a mais conhecida delas o cinto de segurança, em especial o de três pontos como conhecemos hoje, criado em 1959 pelo engenheiro sueco Nils Bohlin (foto abaixo) quando trabalhava para a Volvo. Atualmente são vários os aspectos de segurança passiva, desde extremidades deformáveis que absorvem a energia dos impactos às células de segurança que se mantêm íntegras numa colisão. Sem falar das bolsas infláveis por todo o carro e, recentemente, até no lado de fora para proteger o pedestre num atropelamento, nesse caso segurança para terceiros.

Nils Bohlin (1920–2002) (foto Wikipedia)

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GOL RALLYE, ALTO MAS BOM DE CURVA

Fotos:autor


O Gol Rallye apareceu há pouco aqui no post do Josias, mas eu quis andar com ele e ver como ficou o comportamento estando quase 30 mm mais alto em relação ao normal. Logo nas primeira curvas feitas no jeito, surpresa: faz curva e muito bem. Olhei a suspensão por baixo e nova surpresa: os braços transversais encontravam-se praticamente na horizontal. Estava explicado.


Uma rápida conversa com a engenharia, aproveitando a coletiva de imprensa do Fox BlueMotion 1-L 3-cilindros, nesta quarta-feira em Campinas, esclareceu. O subchassi e o conjunto motor-transeixo estão 20 mm mais baixos em relação ao monobloco, obtendo-se o efeito desejado.

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Friday 28 June 2013

JAGUAR XJ13, A OBRA-PRIMA INACABADA

Ah, se tivesse competido...

Muitos carros são julgados pela sua ficha técnica, números de desempenho, quantidade de unidades vendidas, índices de satisfação dos consumidores e outras formas de medição de eficiência ou qualidade de produtos criados dentro de fábricas.
Esses critérios exatos podem ser muito importantes para a maioria dos carros que a maioria das pessoas compram, assim como para geladeiras e escovas de dentes, mas não para  uma boa porção dos carros que falam à alma e coração dos entusiastas. Óbvio que há entusiastas que compram carros pelas frias fichas técnicas, ou rejeitam outros pelo mesmo motivo, mas acredite, isso tem apenas interesse acadêmico, ou de mesa de bar, depois de um tempo de convívio com a máquina.
O importante mesmo é que o usuário, dono, possuidor ou quem for que esteja com a chave na mão, goste e se sinta bem dentro dele e também fora, olhando o veículo. Aquele tipo de carro que faz você olhar para trás depois que o fecha e vai se afastando. Que seja uma máquina que desperte e mantenha acordados os sentidos físicos e as correntes elétricas mentais da pessoa. Para ficar claro, da pessoa que usa o carro, não das pessoas que comentam o que elas acham dele, já que agradar a todos não deve ser objetivo de quem quer ter um carro que lhe entusiasme. Na verdade, para se sentir tranquilo consigo, essas opiniões de terceiros devem ser sumariamente ignoradas.
Por isso carros com belas características técnicas podem ser deprimentes no uso diário, uma situação que poucas vezes poderia acontecer com entusiastas normais a respeito de Jaguares entusiásticos, que são quase todos diga-se de passagem,  menos alguns poucos modelos ou detalhes de modelos, onde a marca de Coventry pisou na bola. O sedã X-Type, produzido de 2001 a 2009 deve ser o único verdadeiramente desinteressante nesses anos todos de história, um erro magistralmente corrigido com o seu sucessor, o atual XF.
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COLUNA "DE CARRO POR AÍ"

End eletrônico:edita@rnasser.com.br                       Fax: +5561.3225.5511            Coluna 2613  27.junho.2013
O novo motor 1.0 três cilindros e o Fox
Um Fox capaz até 17% de economia sobre a versão 1.0 e quatro cilindros, é a proposta da VW para incrementar vendas por atualização e redução de consumo. Custa mais R$ 750, e diz a VW, recuperados por economia em até um ano.
Pulando a parte do automóvel, sem trocadilho mero veículo para apresentar o motor, parte mais importante da história.
É remédio tecnológico, iniciando curar carência da VW há anos, com motores de baixa potência específica, convencionais, duas válvulas por cilindro, sem brilho ou t grande. Novo, há pouco lançado na origem alemã movendo o UP!, primeiro degrau em tamanho e preço na marca.
Como é
Atual em conceitos por exigências de consumo e emissões, sonho de projetista: começar em tela branca, criando coisas novas e aperfeiçoando conceitos. Os três cilindros estão no caminho para motores pequenos, reduzidos em peças, custos de produção, consumo, emissões. Exigindo menor baia para o motor, permitem projetar carros menores, mais leves e econômicos.
Une conceitos atuais: todo em alumínio, 4 válvulas por cilindro, e funde o coletor de escape no cabeçote, aí aplicando o catalisador. Gere temperaturas diferentes, maior no bloco e menor no cabeçote, esta para diminuir a possibilidade de detonação, a batida de pinos, ante a taxa de compressão de 11,5:1.
Outras novidades, virabrequim com contrapesos especiais para absorver as vibrações do número ímpar de cilindros, bielas mais leves e, novidade maior – e pânico para reparos grandes –, os dois comandos de válvulas não são seculares eixos com excêntricos, mas a junção, por diferença de temperatura, ambiente e criogênica – 150 °C negativos –, de pequenos pedaços de eixo e os cames. Juntam-se definitivamente em 30s. Para reparos, troca da tampa do cabeçote.
As válvulas tem aberturas variáveis, para mais torque ante demanda, balancins sobre rolamentos reduzindo atrito, e polias irregulares nos eixos baixando tensões na correia dentada. Pistões com saia curta, grafitada.
Na prática da teoria, reduzir partes, pesos, atritos = + disposição + economia.
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Thursday 27 June 2013

MOTOR DE 3 CILINDROS VW CHEGA AO BRASIL

Fotos: divulgação (abaixo), demais, autor 


Pela primeira vez, um motor de três cilindros 4-tempos de automóvel é fabricado no Brasil – o do DKW-Vemag fabricado de 1956 a 1967 era 2-tempos e o do Hyundai HB20 é importado – com a Volkswagen brasileira embarcando na onda de suprimir cilindros em nome da redução de peças móveis e, por conseguinte, de atrito. Tudo tem somente a ver com a redução de consumo de combustível e, com ela, menos emissões do gás inerte dióxido de carbono, mais conhecido por CO2, resultante da combustão e que muitos afirmam estar levando o planeta  a derreter de tanto calor, havendo quem conteste.

Seja como for, todo o mérito para a Volkswagen do Brasil por lançar um moderno motor de 1 litro que prima tanto pela potência de 82 cv a 6.250 rpm com álcool – o mais potente da cilindrada hoje – quanto pelo baixo consumo de combustível. Inicialmente será o motor do Fox BlueMotion, versão que se junta ao Fox 1,0, que mantém o motor TEC quatro-cilindros de 76 cv, estendendo-se depois ao novo up!, previsto para o começo do ano que vem. Na Alemanha é usado no up! e no Polo, neste em versão1- e 1,2-litro.

O Fox BlueMotion custa R$ 32.590 (2 portas) e R$ 34.090 (4 portas), ou seja, R$ 750,00 mais que o Fox 1,0, que continua em produção normalmente. O que sai de cena é o Fox BlueMotion 1,6.

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Wednesday 26 June 2013

JAC J3 2014, O CHINÊS QUE VAI SER BAIANO



O Bob comendo empanadas no Salão do Automóvel de Buenos Aires, o Arnaldo rodando de MINI-Cooper... e o trouxa aqui andando de carro chinês. E dois numa semana só. Além do Chery Tiggo, que já foi postado, encarei os JAC J3 e J3 Turin 2014. E o pior: confesso que gosto de rodar com os “china”. Não vou fazer passeata por causa disso, nem acampar na frente da casa do Bob. Acompanhar a evolução dos chineses é bastante educativo para um tio velho.

A notícia é quase rápida. Os JAC J3 ganharam um face-lift e sedã Turin teve ainda um bunda-lift. Suspensões tiveram novos acertos e o interior ganhou nova decoração e painel mais bonitinho. Mas antes queria contar uma historinha, quase um Flagrante da Vida Real, como na Seleções, do Reader's Digest

Muda a dianteira dos J3 e a traseira do Turin

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Tuesday 25 June 2013

UMA NOITE DE GALAXIE

Fotos: Galaxie Clube do Brasil, Eduardo Toledo e autor
Galaxie Night, a noite que é homenagem aos Galaxies, todos os anos, no Sambódromo de São Paulo, SP.
Noite de desfile no Sambódromo da cidade de São Paulo, mas por estarmos no AUTOentusiastas é de esperar que nosso assunto não serão os carros alegóricos, mas sim algum outro tipo de automóvel. No desfile da terça-feira da semana passada (18/06) quem brilhou foram os Galaxies.

Na noite de 3ª feira passada o desfile não foi de carros alegóricos, mas sim de veículos  tão admiráveis quanto...
... afinal de contas, não é toda noite que são reunidos num mesmo ambiente mais de 60  antigos do mesmo modelo

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Monday 24 June 2013

CHERY TIGGO 2014. VAI UM SUV CHINÊS?

Fotos: autor e divulgação


Parece que a velha frase profética sobre carros etílicos (“Carro a álcool, você ainda vai ter um”) agora vale para os chineses. Com o programa Inovar-Auto, pelo menos duas marcas “made in China” vão se nacionalizar: a Chery é uma delas, sendo a outra a JAC. A Chery (que só falta um “r” para ser cherry, a cereja) também usa em outros países algumas outras marcas “quase-quase” para vender os mesmos produtos: Karry, Rely e Riich. Karry é quase carry (transportar), Rely é literalmente “confiar” e Riich é quase rich, ou rico. Para mim, a campeã neste quesito é a Rua Quase-Quase no Rio de Janeiro, bem na "fronteira" Copacabana–Ipanema. Chamada oficialmente de Rua Bulhões de Carvalho, basta trocar o “B” inicial por um “C” e tirar o "v" do segundo nome próprio para entender a razão do apelido. 

Face-lift na dianteira foi completo, do pára-choque ao capô
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Turbos vs Hybrids?

Another guest post by Mr. Liu, as this ties well with the previous post. Original draft May 8, 2013 with editing by Smitka (the prof)

Forced induction provided by turbochargers and superchargers is a nice way to get more power out of an engine with a fixed displacement. The manufacturers of this technology are a fairly concentrated group, however, which is a worry to OEM's. If the supply of these forced induction products is too concentrated with a few select manufacturers, then there is a worry that if demand for blowers goes up substantially, then the suppliers will have undue leverage in price setting. Therefore, OEM's are encouraging other suppliers to enter the market.

...Toyota is hedging its bets ... with both a turbo and a hybrid ...

Turbocharging, which uses exhaust gasses to force a blower thereby raising compression ratios, is used on many vehicles to increase power without sacrificing fuel economy. BMW's Efficient Dynamics system relies upon it and other manufactures employ the same principles in their vehicles. The technology has the potential of providing huge power gains, however there is the issue of turbo lag, namely the lack of instantaneous full-power throttle response. Supercharging, which can be done with either an added engine belt (an detriment to fuel economy) or with an electric motor is a way to achieve power gains with instantaneous response behind the pedal.

Now Toyota is entering the fray — see a June 24, 2013 Automotive News article by Mark Rechtin. I [Smitka] don't know whether Toyota offers other turbos, but this article notes that a turbocharged 4-cylinder engine will power a late 2014 Lexus model, the NX200t. In this Toyota is following in the footsteps BMW, Cadillac and Mercedes, with a several year lag. [I owned a 1998 turbocharged Volvo; even small-car maker Suzuki is using turbos, Nikkei TechOn here notes a new model will get 52 mpg.]

More interesting, Toyota will also produce a hybrid model, the NX300h. As I read it, this is a hedge on Toyota's hybrid strategy: fuel efficiency from a smaller engine rather than putting in a second (electric = hybrid) powertrain. So which costs less? Surely not the hybrid!

Source: WardsAuto.com

Tyler Kaelin wrote: Although the turbochargers and superchargers themselves might be constrained to a few companies, they are creating opportunities for many other companies. Forced induction puts greater strain on an engine. To handle this added strain other parts need to be upgraded as well. That is where companies like Federal Mogul come in, designing parts to compliment forced induction.

The Prof wrote: Turbocharger innovations have led to numerous PACE awards over the past 5 years. And concentrated it is: the dominant players are two in number, BorgWarner and Honeywell. New entrants would be hard-pressed to match them even if OEMs forced the two leaders to license their patents, because so much of their lead comes from the ability to design products to specific engines, and from production skills protected by trade secrets – the OEMs can’t force BW and Honeywell to share things they don’t know about.

Note the same issue comes up with the Chinese partners in various joint venture arrangements – claims that they invite the stealing of technology is in contrast to complaints that JV partners fail to transfer technology. The underlying reality is that even if you could buy [steal!] blueprints, you still wouldn't be able to make it in a cost-effective and high quality manner, much less provide design and technology advice to your customers.

Anyway, here is a set of links to recent PACE award-winning turbocharger innovations:

PACE Award Winners: Turbos [additional turbo innovations were finalists]

Sunday 23 June 2013

UMA ARMA RECÉM-DESCOBERTA


Ainda nos primórdios da civilização, o macaco descobre a primeira arma da humanidade antes mesmo dela existir: o porrete. Um osso, peça pesada, com a energia cinética resultante do seu movimento, consegue feitos até então desconhecidos – até mesmo matar um semelhante. Essas são as primeiras cenas de "2001 - Uma Odisséia no Espaço", de 1968, do diretor Stanley Kubrick.

Semana passada, os brasileiros, como os macacos do fantástico filme, descobriram uma nova arma: as manifestações.

Tenho certeza de que os leitores, amigos ou não, entenderão essa postagem totalmente fora de tópico, pois mais do que autoentusiasta sou um cidadão brasileiro, já bem vivido, e não posso me furtar de abordar esse assunto que foi e está sendo manchete no Brasil e no mundo.

Assim como as ossadas que levaram à arma que o macaco empunha no filme, as manifestações não são novidade em lugar nenhum do planeta. Eu mesmo participei, em março de 1964, da "Marcha da Família com Deus pela Liberdade", no centro do Rio de Janeiro, uma multidão incalculável se manifestando contra o pior que estava por vir, o Brasil se transformar numa república comunosindicalista conduzida pelo presidente João "Jango" Goulart. 
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Saturday 22 June 2013

Do Suppliers Now Drive Technology?

Originally posted May 14, 2013 by Oliver Liu on the W&L Economics 244 Web Site and paralleling one by Marybeth Benjamin. Modest additions by the Prof.

At the Federal Mogul Plymouth Technical Center, I was shown a new spark plug technology that Federal Mogul engineers developed called the Advanced Corona Ignition System (ACIS). ACIS looks like a conventional spark plug except it has a crown on the end instead of the ignition electrode with the ground in front. ACIS fills more of the chamber with ignition-producing electricity (25 mm i/o 1 mm), which will allow for higher compression ratios (about twice conventional levels), resulting in a cleaner burn with improved fuel economy and emissions. It's also faster and the corona can be modified in line with engine speed. The engineer, Mr. Mixell, said that ACIS will be optimized with changes in engine design and that it may take a while before it is available in aftermarket applications for older vehicles.

CITROËN DS5, A NAVE

Fotos: autor


O Citroën DS5 é daqueles carros que ao final da viagem os passageiros exclamam: “Já chegamos?”. Ele roda tão rápido e suave, tão silencioso, tão espaçoso e confortável, que as viagens, se o asfalto for bom, passam num zap. Eu disse e repeti que as qualidades do DS5 dependem das condições do piso e não foi por acaso. O DS5 oferece tudo e mais um pouco do que um autoentusiasta deseja de um carro familiar, ótima dinâmica (segurança ativa), bom espaço para cinco ocupantes e bagagens, e inclusive economia de combustível, porém ele peca na dureza e nos ruídos de suspensão.

O seu irmão menor, o DS3, por nós testado e aprovado com louvor, também é assim, duro, porém ele é um hot hatch, um carro mais dirigido aos jovens de idade e de coração que desejam um carro com características mais esportivas, mesmo que isso lhes custe algum desconforto. Já o DS5 é um grande hatch familiar e, como tal, dele se espera uma suspensão mais macia.

Aqui, aro 18, mas há a opção de aro 17, o que na prática lhe cai melhor.

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Friday 21 June 2013

COLUNA "DE CARRO POR AÍ"














End. eletrônico:edita@rnasser.com.br                           Fax: +5511 61 3225 5511  Coluna 2513  19.junho.2013

O Salón dos argentinos e as novidades para nós
Argentinos verão, até 30 de junho, a sexta edição de seu Salón del Automóvil. Iniciativa interrompida pelas corcoveantes crises econômicas do país, nesta série, viabilizada pelo apoio da Adefa, a associação dos fabricantes, expõe muitas novidades. Duas, em especial, relacionadas ao mercado brasileiro, o Citroën C4 Lounge e o novo Ford Focus. Outra, Chevrolet Tracker – aqui, Trax. Mexicano, com posterior montagem local importando componentes coreanos.
Mercado doméstico de automóveis na Argentina varia tanto quanto suas crises econômicas. Entretanto, nada parece relacioná-las, pois o país está num destes períodos, com inflação subanunciada, proibição oficial de compra de dólares, um incentivo para entesourar a moeda estadunidense. Efeito no varejo, cotação 50% acima do oficial, lojas oferecem descontos para recebê-lo a 1 por 8,5 pesos, criando mercado informal, à prova de incidência de impostos. Parece crise, sugere desvario na condução econômica, mas prevê-se venda recordista de 800 mil unidades – Brasil deve arranhar 4M.
Dado interessante, o mercado argentino é 1/5 do brasileiro, mas o número de modelos e versões é maior. De GMs, por exemplo, importam Corvette, Camaro e Malibu. De Fiat, Alfa, Abarth, Panda 4x4, 500 L, Dodge Viper. Fossem brasileiros fariam panelaço contra a acomodação do consumidor por não exigir opções em nosso mercado.
Novidades
Apesar da diferença, fazer o Salón em ano ímpar oportuniza apresentar modelos comuns a ambos os mercados...
Citroën – Uma das maiores referências para nós, novo sedã C4 Lounge. Bem composto, ótima administração de espaço interno, confortável aos ocupantes do banco posterior, bom porta-malas, opções de motor 2,0, flex, 151 cv e 1,6 turbo, câmbios manual cinco-marchas e automática com seis. Concorrente a Honda Civic e Toyota, e entusiasmada previsão de preços entre R$ 60 mil e R$ 80 mil;

Novo C4 Lounge substitui o Pallas

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Thursday 20 June 2013

CARROS INCRIVELMENTE IGUAIS



Vi que o post do Corolla XEi suscitou alguma discussão sobre a maneira como os carros curvam hoje em dia e acho que cabe falar um pouco a respeito do tema.

Os pneus atuais estão num ótimo nível de aderência, variando pouco de uma marca para outra. Todos são radiais com cinta de aço. Suspensão dianteira que não é McPherson é exceção. Há alguma variação nas suspensões traseiras, que vão do popular eixo de torção à independente multibraço, em alguns casos geometria McPherson (caracterizada por não ter braço de controle superior). Dificilmente o câmber dianteiro é maior que 1º positivo ou negativo, e o cáster maior que 7º é raro.

Câmber hoje é bem contido, sem exageros

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Wednesday 19 June 2013

State Franchise Regulation


This is the fourth carryover from student blogs, with guest blogger Asher Stevens-Lubin. In his defense he wrote this post at the very start of the term, before we'd covered franchising issues (and had David in as a speaker). Both Ruggles and Smitka append comments. Roberts-Lubin's citations are detailed at the bottom.

The cost of the auto distribution system in the United States has been estimated as averaging up to 30 percent of vehicle price, with 15 percent on the end of the manufacturer (in the form of advertising, loans, and rebates) and the other 15 percent solidly on the side of the retailer, or dealer. This 15 percent of the total price of a given vehicle is due to the cost to dealers of financing inventory, paying for insurance, advertising, and paying commissions. [Source: Marti et al.]


Early in the history of the US auto industry, most manufacturers sold their vehicles directly to the consumer. However with the advent of Ford’s assembly line and the mass-production of automobiles, distribution was more efficient through retailers since manufacturers mainly had just one or two factories located near resources like steel mills (making the assessment of demand and provision of customer services easier for retailers).

In these early days, this franchise system was conducted through voluntary contracts between manufacturers and dealers. However since then, virtually every state has codified the automobile franchise system, making it illegal for manufacturers to sell automobiles directly to the consumer; largely because states earn around 20 percent of their sales taxes from automobile retail, but also because car dealerships account for, on average, 7-8 percent of employment. [Source: Lafontaine & Morton]

Ruggles writes: This is the first misnomer. The reason for state franchise law is to protect Dealers from their Suppliers. A Dealer makes a SIGNIFICANT investment to represent an OEM's products. That Dealer is then in in a position of subjugation to that supplier without significant protection other than the traditional franchise agreement. The supplier could over supply or under supply on a whim. The supplier could provide premium stock to a competitor while withholding premium stock from the original Dealer. The supplier could make unreasonable demands on the original Dealer and use the control of inventory supply, compensation for warranty repairs, etc. to coerce Dealer. Without Dealer protection the supplier could open a factory owned store near the franchise Dealer, and under sell that dealer to drive them out of business. This is the primary reason for Franchise laws.

This model was beneficial to both manufacturers and retailers until the advent of the Information Age in the late nineteen-eighties. With the arrival of global instantaneous information sharing and online automobile sale, disintermediation occurred—that is, the role of the retailer became superfluous (or at least very much different). Cutting back on its number of dealerships has been a key means for GM to reattain profitability. [Source: Bodish]

Ruggles writes: The model is STILL beneficial to both OEMs and Retailers.

Disintermediation has NOT occurred, at least not yet. Cutting back on the number of its Dealerships was NOT a key means for GM to regain profitability. GM's customers are its Dealers. Consumer end users are the customer of their Dealers. Getting rid of customers doesn't help an auto OEM become profitable. GM realized their mistake and reinstated many of the terminated Dealers with some urging from Congress. The story behind how Team Auto came to the conclusion that reducing Dealerships helped OEM profitability is a long one. Looking through this blog one will find numerous columns on the subject. But if one wants to read the most scathing criticism of that mistaken thinking, read the SIGTARP report on the auto bailout (such as HERE).

Yesterday, Automotive News reported that Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk (the same billionaire entrepreneur who plans to build a colony on Mars and die there himself, “just not on impact”) will “consider federal options” in his battle to overturn automobile franchise laws.

Ruggles writes: Actually, Elon Musk is NOT seeking to overturn automobile franchise law. He is looking for the means for Tesla to own its own Dealerships. This is not a problem in most states as long as there are no Tesla franchised Dealers. Musk plans to have NO privately owned franchised Dealers in any state, or so he thinks, UNTIL he realizes that expansion is limited by his own personal finances and having franchised Dealers might benefit him and his company. Personally, I have no problem with Tesla owning its own stores, and don't think anyone else should either, as long as Tesla isn't competing against any franchised Telsa dealers. But he did run afoul of the Texas auto franchise law, and that is where the legal action is taking place. Read Maryann Keller's statement about the matter in this blog.

He tweeted a link to a petition calling for the same on the White House’s website (as of this writing it had just over 5000 signatures). Musk runs Tesla Motors on a “mall-based” retail network, which dealers in Texas and elsewhere have alleged violates many states’ laws.

David Hyatt, a spokesman for the National Automobile Dealers Association, responded to this petition’s claim that franchise laws “stifle the auto industry, keep prices of new vehicles up and reduce consumer choice,” stating that “the franchise system is good for consumers, good for communities and good for the economy. Manufacturers that sell their vehicles directly to consumers – and don't let anyone else sell that vehicle – eliminate competitive pricing.”[4]

Ruggles writes: Yes, the state franchise laws stifle the auto industry to the point they have only sold as many as 17 million new vehicles in a year. So we can sell what, 20 million without Dealers? Who will deal with the tradeins and do the warranty work? If you want to see new vehicle prices rise, get rid of the franchise Dealers and leave it to the OEMs. Is anyone familiar with the Ford Collection experiment which failed miserably?

Yet allowing manufacturers to sell cars directly to the consumer could very well reduce inventory costs, and whether it does should be left to be seen. In other words, if retailing actually increases competition and lowers prices, then dealerships will survive the deregulation of the automobile franchising system.

Ruggles writes: It won't be seen any time soon. There is NO EVIDENCE that manufacturers selling directly to consumers will save inventory costs. NONE.

Now this is an arbitrary sum up. Why should the purpose be to lower prices? The mission is to let the competitive market determine prices. We're not going to see any deregulation of the automobile franchise system. Dealers have made BILLIONS of dollars of investment in their businesses based on the franchise system. The numbers are so high there is no way for OEMs to finance their own dealer network, and they know it.

the prof (Smitka) writes [originally April 23rd, 2013]: Whether dealers are “necessary” is something we’ll talk about; it’s good that you picked up the Tesla, which is attempting to circumvent state franchise law with Texas as a test case. Auto distribution was a key, probably the key, institution in the development of franchising; fast food is strictly post-WWII but as we’ll read, autos date to the 1920s. The case is much more complex than just physical distribution and inventory costs; on a regional basis swapping among dealers addresses the latter, because you can (potentially) sell cars held by others, but selling out of inventory is more profitable. However, a dealership also provides for the purchase of used cars (and then their sale), arranges finance, and handles service. “The Factory” has found that an impossible business to run as part of a large organization, and not just in the US but also in Japan, Germany, the UK and emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India. That ought to suggest that the issues are rather more complex.

So we might instead ask: what might make Tesla different? Or is this a transitional pattern (which, by the way, ties up a lot of capital)?

Bodish, Gerald R. (2009). "Economic Effects of State Bans on Direct Manufacturer Sales to Car Buyers." Department of Justice Economic Analysis Group Competition Advocacy Paper #09-1 CA.

Lafontaine, Francine and Morton, Fiona Scott (2010). “State Franchise Laws, Dealer Terminations, and the Auto Crisis.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24:3 (Summer), 233–250.

Martí, Eric, Garth Saloner, and A. Michael Spence (2000). "Disintermediation in the U.S. Auto Industry." Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Case Number: EC-10.

MINI-COOPER S PACEMAN, O MINI QUE FALTAVA

Fotos: divulgação


A MINI acaba de lançar um novo modelo, o MINI Paceman. Para o Brasil veio a versão mais forte, o MINI-Cooper S Paceman, cujo motor turbo de 1,6 litro rende 185 cv, o carro acelera pra valer. Ele, segundo a Mini, faz o 0 a 100 km/h em 7,8 segundos e atinge máxima de 212 km/h. E faz isso com um equilíbrio e obediência que nos impressiona; tem excelente estabilidade e ótimos freios; tração dianteira.


CONTINUE LENDO >>>

Maryann Keller - Recent Speech at a JD Power Conference

For the over four decades I’ve been involved with the auto industry, first as an investment analyst and now as a consultant and director serving on the boards of both automotive companies and auto dealers. Over those four decades, I’ve heard many arguments made against the franchise dealer system…which dealers never fail to disprove time and time again.

One myth promulgated in the 1990s - and now resurfaced by Tesla - is that factory stores save money by reducing distribution expenses wrongly estimated at 30% of total expense. Let’s put aside for the moment that the percentage itself is nonsense, Ford’s ill-fated Auto Collection experiment proved conclusively (as told to me by a former Ford executive last week) that corporate guys are not risk takers and lack the entrepreneurial spirit to manage dealerships. Big corporations control from the top but selling cars requires street smarts and adapting to local market and competition. Ford ended its experiment after a couple of years of market share losses amid mounting evidence that factory stores do not deliver a better customer experience nor reduce costs, in fact they proved to be bad at both. GM, perhaps after watching Ford’s travails, and despite repeating the same nonsense about reduced costs through factory ownership, canceled its plans to buy 10% of its dealers, plus the Saturn stores, and operate them in through what it called GM Retail Holdings.
Ford’s failed experiment demonstrated that, franchise laws notwithstanding, dealers are essential partners in the long process of a car’s journey from the factory to a customer’s garage. Franchise laws protect dealers from arbitrary actions by automakers and given the financial commitments they continue to make in response to factory demands in image programs, equipment, training and even vendor selection, the laws are entirely reasonable. Given the intense competition in auto retailing, it’s hard to understand how anyone could suggest that franchise laws hurt consumers.
Franchise dealers’ cumulative investment in land, equipment and facilities easily exceeds $100 billion. Dealers fund 60 days of inventory and another month of inventory in transit that would otherwise fall to the carmaker. The inventory buffer allows automakers to adjust future production levels. For a company like Ford US inventory funding equals about $15 billion at any point in time.
Tesla may be the first start up to launch a car and change the retail process as well but it is definitely not the only company that saw dealerships as a costly impediment to customer bliss. A few years ago I was involved with one such company funded by venture capitalists, and led by a non-automotive executive, that invested in a small car promising to build to order sold though mall-based stores. The car never made it to production and the company folded after consuming the investors’ capital. .
Despite evidence to the contrary and lacking any real world understanding to the business, a journalist writing on Yahoo Autos last year stated “Instead of building cars and selling them to dealers who hawk them to shoppers, Tesla wants to build only cars to customers orders, eliminating part of the auto industry’s massive overhead costs in inventory. By selling cars directly Tesla’s executives believe they can make their customer happy, and eventually sell more cars for less money.” Well we will see if it is fact is more economical for the factory to pay the rent, salaries, delivery and service or have someone else do it using his or her own capital. And build to order works only as long as there is an order bank…what happens when the orders dry up…do you send the assembly workers home, tell your suppliers to send to stop producing until you call?…..unfortunately auto assembly really doesn’t lend itself to build to order. It is capital and labor intensive even when work is farmed out to suppliers.
Every dealer knows that the vast majority of customers want their car that day not a date convenient to a manufacturer. The dealer has always been the buffer with the automaker facilitating inventory management through various incentives and production adjustments. It is the dealer who finds the market-clearing price for a vehicle even at the sacrifice of his or her profits.
Others have tried experiments in selling away from the traditional retail dealer location on the notion that a big box retailer or mall would mitigate advertising expenses by placing cars where the customers are.
Early in the 2000s, Asbury struck a deal with Walmart to sell used cars in the parking lots of Walmart stores. Asbury would take the cars to where the retail customers were at America’s busiest retailer. A few dealers have experimented (as Tesla is now doing) renting inline space in large shopping malls as storefronts to sell cars. So far, the history of non-dealership settings to sell cars – with perhaps the exception of the infrequent offsite tent sale – hasn’t worked. The Asbury/Walmart experiment ended in less than two years when both parties discovered there were too few car buyers among the static population of regular customers who shopped for food and other necessities at their local Walmart each week.
I suspect that once the novelty associated with Tesla wears off, it too will also discover that mall locations aren’t ideal places to market or sell cars. The enclosed shopping mall typically has several large anchor stores – Nordstrom, Macy’s, Neiman Marcus, etc. – and perhaps eighty to one hundred or so “in line” shops like GAP, the Limited, Zale’s, Sunglass Hut, Apple, etc. A large successful mall might have more than a million or more visitors a year – and that’s about 3,000 folks per day. Those big numbers can dazzle but they aren't what they seem. Much of this traffic represents repeat visitors, as it did at Walmart, coming each week or so to see the changing merchandise at her favorite stores – new fashion and seasonal clothing, makeup, shoes or the latest Apple gadget. Everything can be purchased on a credit card. I used the pronoun “her” deliberately because the vast majority of mall stores are dedicated to women and children not the men who would be the targets for an expensive, high tech performance car.
Furthermore, new car models are only really new only every four to six years. The merchandise doesn’t change very often – so on the second or third visit to the mall, the car store looks exactly as it did last month or even the month before. What was fresh once is now stale with the passage of time…so visitors to the mall just skip past that new car display.
What the uninformed forget – or figure out after an attempt or three – is that automotive retailing is very different from traditional retailing. The product car dealers sell is expensive, generally requires financing, and often involves a trade. It often includes helping shoppers match their budget to a car that might not be their first choice but rather one they can afford. The process is slowed by required disclosures and regulations resulting in a pile of documents that have to be signed even for the most straightforward transaction.
A car weighs 4,000 pounds and takes up 50 square feet of space. It can’t be delivered overnight to one’s front door by Fedex. And most folks don’t have a big enough credit limit on their Visa card to pay for it. And what do they do with their trade? Or get it serviced?
While we are talking about myths, how about the still repeated one that people hate dealers so, if given the chance, they will buy a car online. I almost don't know where to start in taking this one apart…..In the early days of the Internet, Silicon Valley funded and lost hundreds of millions, maybe even a billion dollars, on ill-fated ventures that promised to do just that. CarOrder.com, Greenlight.com, and CarsDirect.com (in its original configuration), among others, all promised to avoid the dealership experience. A few actually did that by buying cars from dealers and then reselling them at lower prices to customers until they blew through their capital. Build to Order.com proposed that you would place your order for a fully customized car while lounging in a company-owned showroom entertainment center. Again here the premise was to build these cars using an automaker’s parts and technology but avoiding high labor costs and dealerships and give the customer the exact car they wanted. Build-to-order.com never built anything for anyone.
In 1999 and 2000, I ran priceline.com’s experiment with selling cars online, which like most others of the era no longer exists. The essential elements of the priceline model were replicated by TrueCar.com and of course they too ran afoul of franchise laws for the same reasons as priceline. What I learned then – and this is still true today – we could connect buyers with dealers and that the price of a vehicle was the easiest part of a deal. The other elements are harder to control and often the cause of frustration for the customer and the dealer. People don’t like to hear that their trade isn’t worth the value they saw online or that their poor credit doesn’t qualify them for the no down payment, zero percent loan. There are few people who would think about buying a house online from a few photos taken make rooms seem larger than they are or the neighbors Beware of dog sign. Buying a car is comparable to buying a house, why should we think it should be as easy as buying a pair of shoes from Zappos with a return receipt in the box in case they don’t fit.
Although many automotive websites claim to have “sold” millions cars, even today twelve years after priceline decided to concentrate exclusively on travel, automotive websites link a buyer to a dealer who actually sells the car. The Internet has mostly replaced the newspaper as a source of information about cars and dealers but it has not reduced advertising expense per vehicle or made buying a car as easy as buying a book.
Add up all the monthly traffic to all automotive sites, including automakers, dealers and independent sites – and you’d get more than 100 million possibly close to 200 million unique visitors using the web to get information about buying or selling a new or used car. Except there’s one problem if this traffic is somehow suppose to represent potential sales…the total number of new and used cars sold by dealers at retail and excluding fleet each month is only about two million units, and that is probably generous given that not all retail customers go online..some might just release the same brand of the leased car they are returning to the dealer. So the real shoppers – however you want to define that number – are only a small fraction of the total visitors. So just like newspaper, radio, or TV advertising, dealer spend on the internet is likely no better targeted – once again dispelling the notion that the internet would solve the age-old problem of knowing which 50% of a dealer’s advertising works.
And what was once promised as to the beauty of the Internet for used cars…listings of available cars with pictures, even videos, and stated pricing would make it easy for shoppers to find the best car at the best price. But what has happened is that for any given vehicle, within a similar bandwidth of age, mileage, trim, the price range for specific models is usually within a few hundred dollars, not enough to make price the deciding purchase factor. The Internet hasn’t created a pricing advantage for any seller and customers simply have confirmation that similar cars within a market are priced the same. With the exception of hard to find cars, the differentiating factors are having the car the customer wants, proximity of the dealership and the dealer’s reputation in providing a good customer experience.
In summary, technology is a wonderful thing…and dealers have adopted it nearly full tilt. Sophisticated software to manage every aspect of the business is now de riguer…BDC’s to support internet sales…and eDocuments will eventually become the norm. But the point is that the system of franchised dealers – using their own risk capital to fund their businesses and guarantee millions of dollars of inventory, promote their own brand and that of their OEM, provide the expensive tools needed in their service departments, and manage the endless headache of a workforce – will not be superseded by technology or factory owned mall stores. Factories have learned that they cannot do a better job than independent businessmen at the retail level. And new start ups – many of whom will come and go – with new systems of selling and servicing retail automobiles will all reach the same conclusion: the dealer network is the best way. Thank you for listening today.

















Tuesday 18 June 2013

Why are there still car shows?


This is the third in a series of guest posts by Mike Smitka's students, drawn from the Economics 244 course blog.
...marketing has changed, auto shows haven't...
Shanghai Auto Show
The marketing "world" today is significantly different than that of 40 years ago, but motors shows today are remarkably similar to those of the 1960's. As the Shanghai Motor Show of a few days ago came to a close, it occurred to me that car shows in general seem to have lost much of their original purpose, or at the very least have not adapted to the internet.
First, given the ease with which the cars are frequently discovered before they even make it to the show, the main purpose of showing off vehicles which the public has never seen before doesn't seem to make sense. Take the new BMW X4 – virtually no one was surprised at the design, because it was available on the internet long before the show. Secondly, the argument that the purpose of the shows is to get as much exposure as possible for new vehicles also seems to fail, because the companies could just as easily provide images of the cars (which is what the vast majority of people see anyway, given that most people are not able to attend these shows) via the internet.
Perhaps one could make the argument that the sense of festivity associated with these shows creates publicity that would otherwise not exist, but given the high costs associated with auto shows, that argument doesn’t quite seem to hold water. It seems to me that the PR departments associated with these shows will find ways to show off their vehicles significantly more cheaply via the internet. Unless there is a big piece of the puzzle that I am missing, it seems likely that motor shows will at the very least be scaled down significantly.
...Blake Grady...
The Prof: I think that’s an empirical question. How many people visit? – the big January show in Detroit — formally, the North American International Auto Show — attracts over 100,000 and gets exhibitors with cars many people may never otherwise see up close. Furthermore, people like to kick tires, and an auto show beats schlepping from dealership to dealership, indeed car companies hope it will be a prelude to that. Think of this co-location as a positive externality.
For the big shows, there's another positive externality: having lots of journalists in the same place at the same time, you can get more people to your product announcement than if you did it independently. Part of the attraction is the cars; part is that lots of executives show up and make themselves available for interviews. If you're from the New York Times, as our dinner with Bill Vlasic [and reading his book] made clear, you've got good access to senior management, year-in and year-out. Bzut if you're from a "small" publication — a Japanese car magazine or Polish newspaper – you can't just call up GM's CEO and expect a callback. Finally, there's an auto journalist motto: eat free or die. You don't go thirsty, either. (Thanks to Ward's Auto Dealer I attended the Chrysler [journalist] Christmas party last year, there was clear disappointment that so few execs were in attendance.) The bottom line is that these journalists are all filing stories, lots of newspapers and other outlets highlight the shows and carry reviews. Critically, internet content doesn't just appear out of thin air: the car shows all have their journalist previews a day (or two full days) before the shows open.
Hoopla helps, and is expensive to generate on your own. So as an economist, let’s call this another positive externality.
Are shows crucial to car nuts? No. Yet … the car companies need to get someone to generate the content that car guys seek out. Auto shows have their role.
That said, some shows have fallen by the wayside, when too few auto companies attend and sponsors can't recoup their venue costs. Journalists such as those at Automotive News can attend only so many events, and when SAE (the Society of Automotive Engineers) conflicts with an auto show, well, it's not SAE that gives way.






TOYOTA COROLLA XEi, BOM DE ANDAR

Fotos: Divulgação/autor

Faltava-me dirigir o Corolla com motor 2-litros, no lançamento do modelo 2012 em março de 2011 só tive oportunidade de andar no GLi 1,8 automático. Na ocasião achei a suspensão dura demais, tanto que o título do post foi Carro de Corrida. No XEi que acabei de testar, a grata surpresa de encontrar uma suspensão firme porém boa de rodagem, e o carro com um todo muito agradável e que de "carro de tiozão" não tem nada. E que continua a fazer curva como gente grande, como havia constatado há dois anos.


O motor de 2 litros é convincente com seus 153 cv a 5.800 rpm e 142 cv a 5.600 rpm (álcool/gasolina) e 20,7 m·kgf a 4.800 rpm e 19,8 m·kgf a 4.000 rpm. Dá bem conta dos 1.285 kg da versão (8,4 kg/cv). A taxa de compressão é elevada para um 2-litros, 12:1, o que favorece bastante o funcionamento com álcool. São dois comandos de válvulas acionados por corrente, ambos com variador de fase, e quatro válvulas por cilindro atuadas indiretamente por alavancas roletadas pivotando em compensadores hidráulicos de folga. As velas são finas, rosca M12 em vez das M14 mais comuns, visando ganhar espaço para as câmaras d'água na região da câmara de combustão. Bloco, cabeçote e cárter são de alumínio.
CONTINUE LENDO >>>

Libertarianism's Achilles' Heel, by E.J. Dionne Jr.

Here are comments stimulated by the following Washington Post item of Wednesday, June 12, 2013 12:00 pm
Every now and then someone hits the nail on the headby E.J. Dionne Jr.

In politics, we often skip past the simple questions. This is why inquiries about the fundamentals can sometimes catch everyone short.
Michael Lind, the independent-minded scholar, posed one such question last week about libertarianism that I hope will shake up the political world. I’ll get to his query in a moment. It’s important because many in the new generation of conservative politicians declare libertarianism as their core political philosophy.
Libertarians have the virtue, in principle at least, of a very clear creed: They believe in the smallest government possible, longing for what the late philosopher Robert Nozick, in his classic book “Anarchy, State and Utopia,” called “the night-watchman state.” Anything government does beyond protecting people from violence or theft and enforcing contracts is seen as illegitimate.
If you start there, taking a stand on issues is easy. All efforts to cut back on government functions — public schools, Medicare, environmental regulation, food stamps — should be supported. Anything that increases government activity (Obamacare, for example) should be opposed.
In his bracing 1970s libertarian manifesto “For a New Liberty,” the economist Murray Rothbard … concludes: “Liberty has never been fully tried in the modern world; libertarians now propose to fulfill the American dream and the world dream of liberty and prosperity for all mankind.”
… “Why are there no libertarian countries?”

Ruggles: Well, we DO have small government countries like Somalia and Angola to "prove" the libertarian point of view, but they seldom bring those types of countries up as success stories despite the fact they have REALLY small governments.
The ideas of the center-left — based on welfare states conjoined with market economies — have been deployed all over the democratic world, most extensively in the social democratic Scandinavian countries. We also had deadly experiments with communism, aka Marxism-Leninism, or perhaps more accurately Stalinist "state" dictatorship.
From this, Lind asks another question: “If socialism is discredited by the failure of communist regimes in the real world, why isn’t libertarianism discredited by the absence of any libertarian regimes in the real world?” Or in the case of Somalia, their failure?
The answer lies in a kind of circular logic: Libertarians can keep holding up their dream of perfection because, as a practical matter, it is a utopia that will never be — can never be — tried in full. Even many who say they are libertarians reject the idea when it gets too close to home.
The strongest political support for a broad anti-statist libertarianism now comes from the Tea Party. Yet Tea Party members, as the polls show, are older than the country as a whole. They say they want to shrink government in a big way but are uneasy about embracing this concept when reducing Social Security and Medicare comes up. There’s no way Republicans are going to attack their own base.
But this inconsistency (or hypocrisy) contains a truth: We had something close to a small government libertarian utopia in the late 19th century and we decided it didn’t work. Smaller government meant that too many people were poor and that monopolies were formed too easily.
JD Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, JP Morgan and their cronies controlled wealth equivalent to over 20% of the country's GDP. In today's dollars, that would be over $3 TRILLION, rather more than is controlled by Buffet, Gates, Waltons, and Kochs these days. Government policy was routinely bought and sold.
In fact, as Lind points out, most countries that we typically see as “free” and prosperous have governments that consume around 40 percent of their GDP. They are better off for it. “Libertarians,” he writes, “seem to have persuaded themselves that there is no significant trade-off between less government and more national insecurity, more crime, more illiteracy and more infant and maternal mortality ... .”
This matters to our current politics because too many politicians are making decisions on the basis of a grand, utopian theory that they never can — or will — put into practice. They then use this theory to avoid a candid conversation about the messy choices governance requires. And this is why we have gridlock.

Smitka comments: Libertarians also refuse to engage in empiricism – unlike, say, a Milton Friedman, who moved away from his earlier monetarism by the 1990s because it simply wasn't supported by the data. On a different dimension, the New Right resemble the state's rights people of old, who when push came to shove did not believe in the concept of a United States, politically or as a national economy. (Do Tea Party members realize that they are thus anything but patriots?)
Too much government? Get states to gut higher education – hardly a hypothetical – and just rely on recruiting from the next state over. For that matter, shut down local public schools, and recruit from the next county over. Roads? Healthcare? Regulation of markets? Small claims courts? As David Ruggles notes, we then start to resemble Somalia. Now Stalin never went all the way to communism (or to be more precise, socialism), but we quite rightly reject the concept on the basis of the historical evidence from his attempt to push the boundaries of the USSR polity in that direction. Somalia stops short of a full libertarianism. But such failed states ought to be enough proof that libertarianism, too, should be treated as a failed concept.















Maryann Keller Testimonay RE: Tesla versus the state of Texas


Considerations for the State of Texas
Consumer Benefits of the Independent versus Factory-owned New Car Retailer
April 9, 2013
My name is Maryann Keller. I am the Managing Partner of Maryann Keller & Associates LLC, a management consulting firm specializing in the automotive industry. I have served in this position for more than twelve years. My firm is and has been engaged on a wide variety of consulting projects for clients including automotive OEMs, lenders, private equity firms, government agencies, and retailers. Several law firms and one US government agency have engaged me to provide expert witness testimony in support of litigation. I have never served as an expert witness in any litigation involving or related to auto retailing or auto dealers.
I currently serve as a Director on the Boards of two companies. The first is a privately-owned franchise new car dealership group in the State of Maine, and the second is for Drivetime Automotive, a privately-held multi-state automotive retailer specializing in providing subprime credit customers with affordable transportation. At various times in the last twelve years, I have served on the Boards of several public companies including Sonic Automotive and Lithia Motors, both multi-state franchised dealership operators, and for Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group, a rental car agency. Prior to starting my own firm, I was President of priceline.com’s automotive services division during 1999-2000. That start up operation was essentially a sophisticated lead generation process that matched online shoppers of new cars to franchised dealers.

Before my employment at priceline.com, I worked as an automotive industry analyst on Wall Street for 28 years. I served as Chairman of the Society of Automotive Analysts from 1994-1999. During my Wall Street tenure, I was ranked as an All-Star Analyst 12 times by Institutional Investor magazine. I have authored two books on the industry. My first bookRude Awakening: The Rise, Fall and Struggle to Recover at General Motors, was published in 1989 and received the prestigious George S. Eccles prize for Excellence in Economic Writing from Columbia University. My second book, published in 1993, is entitled Collision: GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen and the Race to Own the Twenty-first Century.
The Texas Auto Dealers Association asked me to submit my comments for your consideration as to the benefits of the franchised dealer system for consumers. I can unequivocally state that the consumer is best served by the franchise dealership system for the reasons elaborated herein. My opinions are based upon my four decades of involvement with the automotive industry, particularly within the United States, during which time I have witnessed challenges to the franchised dealer model, including a somewhat recent experiment by Ford that proved both the value and superiority of the franchise dealership over a factory–owned store.
All too often the debate about what is the better retail solution of the car buyer is couched in vague goals: lower distribution costs, more control over the ownership experience, consistent experience in every store, etc. But this ignores the actual car purchase and ownership experience for the vast majority of new car buyers who acquire a new car every four to six years and in doing so links him or herself to the dealer expecting that dealer to resolve all repair issues, manage recalls and warranty claims, and be their advocate in resolving issues with the manufacturer.
Buying a car is not akin to shopping at Target, Wal-Mart, or Tiffany where the transaction is paid by credit card and requires no further relationship with the seller. Buying a new car is a thoughtful process often involving months of online research and visits to multiple dealerships to test drive vehicles under consideration. Even with the enormous amount of easily accessible information on the characteristics and features of every make and model, retail and invoice pricing, projected residual values, quality ratings etc., the process is different. With a new vehicle, most customers are making significant emotional and investment decisions which require assistance in obtaining new financing and disposal of an existing vehicle often including extinguishment of associated debt. The new car purchase experience is far removed from any other retail purchase as to the unique needs of every shopper and the regulatory and disclosure requirements for each sale.
Further, the customer relationship with any new vehicle (and some used vehicles which offer extended manufacturer warranties) and the selling entity – a new car dealer – extends well beyond the initial acquisition. There are elements of warranty repair, manufacturer recalls (from time to time), and even silent recalls which are addressed at service visits. Warranty periods are generally at least three years in length (subject to mileage limits) or longer with some components, such as powertrain, emissions and occupant safety systems, having manufacturer warranty coverage over an even longer period. Warranty and recalls are exclusively handled only by dealers authorized to represent the manufacturer. And for lease customers, one end-of-lease option includes returning the vehicle to manufacturer’s captive fiancé company or other lender through its dealer network. It is also interesting to note that while General Motors, Ford and others have abandoned some brands in recent years, the remaining franchised dealers were designated to perform the above required functions for the owners of Oldsmobiles, Saturns, Hummers, Pontiacs and Mercurys.
There is a strong consumer interest in having independently-owned dealerships acting on behalf of the manufacturers. The primary reasons result from the following:
  1. Desire by the independent dealer to find a solution that best meets the transportation requirements for all customers regardless of income, creditworthiness, available cash, or trade value;
  2. Competition among dealers drives product and service pricing to a true market level and offers the consumer a choice among vendors; and
  3. Value preservation for both the manufacturer’s brand and dealer’s brand drives behavior to seek customer satisfaction with the dealer acting as in intermediary between the manufacturer and the consumer.
It should be understood that the franchised dealership, an entity owned and operated by a business separate and distinct from the vehicle manufacturer, is nonetheless a franchisee. As such, the franchisee is granted specific rights to utilize certain marks of the manufacturer, sell and service the manufacturer’s products, and engage in a limited number of other ancillary activities such as used car sales, car rental, and other related automotive services. However, the franchisee is not given an unlimited license and must conform to the standards and practices set forth by the manufacturer in order to retain the franchise rights. This can include investing in store image programs, adding service bays, personnel and service hours to accommodate local needs, purchasing specialized tools, investing in continuous training levels of sales and service personnel, meeting specific levels of customer satisfaction based upon manufacturer surveys of every buyer and service customer, and acting in a manner appropriate to maintain the general goodwill of the manufacturer and the brands represented.
As such, the dealer – as the franchisee – must conform to the standards expected by the franchisee. Yet, unlike other franchise systems such as McDonalds or 7-11, the automotive dealer also has his own local, regional, or even nationwide brand to support and maintain. In this manner, the dealer acts as both a “system operator” selling and servicing an automotive brand for a manufacturer but also on his own behalf to support his or her own brand. Think of the local car dealers in your districts. You likely do not think of them as just the “Ford” or “Nissan” store but that of “John Doe Ford” or “Jane Doe Nissan” owned and operated by businesses distinct from their manufacturers. They and their employees are members of the community where they continue to represent the automaker’s brand as well as their own.
This is a singularly different element of the franchised automotive dealer system as opposed to most other franchise businesses. No one goes to a McDonalds or a Fairfield Inn and cares who the actual owner might be – the reputation is solely that of the franchisor. The nature of their products and services are such that there is little variance, if any, among franchisees, the product or service is rapidly consumed (and at relatively low cost), and there is no long term on-going relationship of daily use.
Any new car though is expensive, has a long duration ownership cycle, and warranty claims can only be satisfied at a franchised dealer. The relationship with a new car dealer extends well beyond the initial purchase, and maintaining customer satisfaction with the vehicle becomes not only the responsibility of the manufacturer but that of the local dealership as well, even if different from that where the vehicle was purchased. Hence, new car dealers are different from other franchise operators in that there is usually a name attached to the franchise brand that is promoted, advertised, and carries its own reputation separate and distinct from the vehicle brand. Hence, the new car dealer actually serves two masters – that of his manufacturer and that of his or her own creation.
This distinction is extremely important for one reason: the dealer’s desire to maintain his or her own reputation serves as the buffer between the customer and the manufacturer. It is in the dealer’s interest to ensure the complete satisfaction of the customer during the duration of vehicle ownership – and this may involve satisfaction of warranty claims, policy work as goodwill from time to time (for vehicles out of warranty), and expeditious handling of recalls and technical service bulletins as they arise. The franchised dealer often can be the advocate for the consumer with regard to issues that may be a result of action (or inaction) by the manufacturer to provide redress.
Second, the franchised dealer network – among any given brand – provides choices for the customer as to both sales and service. While different brands compete for customers, within a given brand, a consumer can pick and choose among different dealers offering the exact same products and services. So price competition exists between not only different vehicle companies (e.g., Chevrolet versus Toyota) but between dealers within the same brand as well. The vast majority of new car purchases are done in major metropolitan regions. Here, shoppers generally have access to several dealers of the same brand within a 25 mile radius who compete with each other and while providing convenient access to service without forcing the owner to drive long distances for repairs.
Competition permits true price discovery by consumers for the best deal among different brands. But such competition also exists among the dealers of any specific brand to promote their best deals. Thus, dealers provide a service to all shoppers that may see such promotions – and hence force competing dealers to respond. Here again, the consumer is served by independently-owned franchisees competing for business from consumers in a local market. Likewise with service, dealers compete for such business and drive prices to a market level as consumers have a choice.
I note that while all new vehicles are required by federal law to display a Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price, the reality is that most new vehicles are sold at prices somewhat below the suggested price. Further, the actual market pricing for a given vehicle can vary among markets for a number of different reasons – changes in local demand associated with local economies, regional manufacturer incentives, equipment match (or mismatch) with regional needs and desires, excess or insufficient inventory stock, or simply response to new models from competing brands at the local level. With so many variables in the dynamic automobile marketplace no company or dealer can fix a price over long periods of time. The presence of competing dealerships allows this market-based pricing to occur among brands, models and among dealers.
Third, the franchised dealer system has generally served customers very well. Everyone who wants to buy a vehicle – a necessity for many – is generally accommodated in some fashion. For new and used car buyers, the franchised dealer provides the inventory and financing to provide transportation for many even if means offering an alternative to a new car purchase for some. But as independent businesses, the franchised dealer owns his inventory of new and used cars. There are often hundreds of vehicles available sale – which gives customers same day access to transportation. Because such inventory is owned by the dealer – there is a strong incentive for the dealer to make sure that each and every customer can be satisfied. Once again, the consumer benefits from broad selection, immediate availability, and the on-site services the dealer provides to take trades and arrange financing for the customer.
Furthermore there is no evidence that the vast majority of car buyers are willing to wait weeks or months for a build to order vehicle. The purchase of a new car is often prompted by a life changing event: a new job, relocation to the another city, a move to a new home, the birth of a child, marriage, divorce, a death in the family, or an accident rendering the car a total loss or resulting in high repair costs. We know that the shopping process can begin months before the actual purchase, but once the decision has been made the customer wants the car as soon as possible. The franchised dealer, with his inventory, is generally able to accommodate every customer’s needs and pocketbook. Even if a dealer doesn’t have the exact car in stock, the dealer is generally able to find and deliver that exact car the customer desires within a couple of days. This past October, my sister, having just moved to CT from AZ, decided prior to her move to purchase a specific make and model. I accompanied her and my brother in law to the dealer where they settled on the trim level and color they wanted which this dealer didn’t have in stock. My sister needed a car quickly and couldn’t wait for the next factory shipment. However, within ten minutes, the dealer located the exact vehicle 60 miles away in New Jersey and arranged with the NJ dealer to flat bed the car to CT the next day. Within 48 hours of entering the CT dealership for the first time, she and her husband drove out of the store with their desired vehicle.
One of the arguments made by vehicle manufacturers seeking to control both distribution and service can generally be described as follows:
We can offer a compelling customer experience while achieving operating efficiencies and capturing sales and service revenues incumbent automobile manufacturers do not enjoy in the traditional franchised distribution and service model. Our customers deal directly with our own factory-employed sales and service staff, creating what we believe is a superior buying experience from the buying experience consumers have with franchised automobile dealers and service centers. We believe we will also be able to better control costs of inventory, manage warranty service and pricing, maintain and strengthen our brand, and obtain rapid customer feedback. Further, we believe that by owning our sales network we will avoid the conflict of interest in the traditional dealership structure inherent to most incumbent automobile manufacturers where the sale of warranty parts and repairs by a dealer are a key source of revenue and profit for the dealer but often are an expense for the vehicle manufacturer.
The fundamental problem with this argument is that the consumer has no choice but to deal with the factory itself for both sales and service. There is no opportunity for price discovery by consumers for a new car or for service as there is no competition among stores and service centers all are owned by the factory. All new cars are priced as set by the factory – and not determined by the marketplace among competing sellers. Second, the factory also determines service rates, parts costs, and makes its own determination as to whether a claim is valid for warranty coverage. There is no independent arbitrator that can act on behalf of the consumer as in the case of the independent franchised dealer system. And last, the factory owned store has little impetus to accommodate customers that cannot afford their new vehicles – in contrast to the franchised dealer which has a strong motivation to satisfy each and every customer with a transportation solution.
There is yet another problem with the factory-owned model of distribution and service. Since the factory controls both the parts supply as well as the technical training for the mechanics, there is little impetus for the factory to provide such to independent third party agencies. In effect, the factory service locations and its own mechanics (whether based at a service center or delivered through mobile repair trucks) forces all customers to utilize its labor and needed parts at prices it solely determines. The customer is effectively trapped within the network solely controlled by the vehicle manufacturer.
This is in contrast to the franchised dealer system where a customer can access parts and labor among competing independently owned service centers – at prices that are determined by the market. Further, franchised dealers also sell factory original parts to vehicle owners, independent mechanics, and even to other dealers. Some franchised dealers have large wholesale parts inventories and supply factory parts to various professional buyers, thus supplementing the manufacturer’s own parts distribution system. In contrast, the factory-owned store system, as a sole source, has no incentive to do so in order to maximize its own revenues and eliminate potential competitors from servicing its vehicles. Again, not only are customers deprived of the right to shop for the best service price (and experience) but other third parties – such as independent mechanics or other dealers – are deprived of the right to service and support vehicles sold and serviced only by the factory.
Last, there is no inherent conflict between the factory and the franchised dealer with regard to warranty and service. It is true that warranty work can generate a profit for the dealer – and the desire to provide warranty service is a motivator, not detraction for such independent dealers as it is a solution which optimizes customer satisfaction. In the factory-centric model, as a single source provider of service, such motivation to supply and support warranty service becomes diminished as it is only a cost to the factory, not a revenue stream.
There is a notion that factory stores eliminate costs in the factory-owned distribution system that can be passed on to consumers. It is easy to find essays written by uninformed professors on the topic that have helped to perpetuate this notion. One has to ask exactly where those savings might arise. It is also merely hypothetical to assume that the automaker would be altruistic and pass any “realized” savings on the consumer.
There are certainly no savings in fixed assets such as the dealerships land, buildings, or equipment. Nor would there be a reduction in employees. Variable costs such as advertising would remain unchanged. So the question is whether there would be savings in inventory. The “build to order” model remains a theoretical ideal. Currently auto companies are paid immediately for their output by their dealers. Each dealer is then obligated to find the market clearing price for vehicles in high demand as well as models that might be at the end of the production cycle facing intense competition and requiring heavy discounting.
Auto assembly is capital intensive which requires large facilities and skilled workforces. It is called auto assembly because vehicles are assembled from parts and components produced by suppliers that fabricate them in equally capital and labor intensive production plants. Parts producers bid contracts based upon annual production volume targets. They make investments to support projected volumes. Neither the supplier community nor the automakers themselves can rely upon a fixed price retail model based on “build to order” as a way to manage or reduce costs. For both assembler and parts suppliers steady output above breakeven optimizes profits. Stop start production raises unit costs because of the high fixed costs associated these factories. Every product has a life cycle whether an Apple iPhone or Chevrolet Silverado. Demand for individual products varies not only because of macro economic factors but also competition. So to assume that there are savings from a perpetual order bank is simply not credible or supported over the long term even by models like Dell Computer. Dell Computer’s build to order model worked as long as there was no iPAd.
Both GM and Ford experimented with factory ownership of retail stores during the late 1990s. Ford’s ill-fated Auto Collection experiment proved conclusively that factory ownership did not work well. Ford ended its experiment after a couple of years of market share losses amid mounting evidence that its factory stores did not deliver a better customer experience nor reduce costs. GM, perhaps after watching Ford’s travails, and despite repeating the same nonsense about reduced costs through factory ownership, canceled its own planned takeover of 10% of its franchised dealers.
In summary, the independent franchised dealer system does provide the best solution for consumers for the reasons elaborated above. Of course, I recognize that the franchised system is not perfect – and there are and will always be a few dealers which do not provide high levels of customer satisfaction. Yet the franchise system has survived for over 100 years and best serves customer needs.