Showing posts with label Economics 244. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics 244. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

State Franchise Regulation


This is the fourth carryover from student blogs, with guest blogger Asher Stevens-Lubin. In his defense he wrote this post at the very start of the term, before we'd covered franchising issues (and had David in as a speaker). Both Ruggles and Smitka append comments. Roberts-Lubin's citations are detailed at the bottom.

The cost of the auto distribution system in the United States has been estimated as averaging up to 30 percent of vehicle price, with 15 percent on the end of the manufacturer (in the form of advertising, loans, and rebates) and the other 15 percent solidly on the side of the retailer, or dealer. This 15 percent of the total price of a given vehicle is due to the cost to dealers of financing inventory, paying for insurance, advertising, and paying commissions. [Source: Marti et al.]


Early in the history of the US auto industry, most manufacturers sold their vehicles directly to the consumer. However with the advent of Ford’s assembly line and the mass-production of automobiles, distribution was more efficient through retailers since manufacturers mainly had just one or two factories located near resources like steel mills (making the assessment of demand and provision of customer services easier for retailers).

In these early days, this franchise system was conducted through voluntary contracts between manufacturers and dealers. However since then, virtually every state has codified the automobile franchise system, making it illegal for manufacturers to sell automobiles directly to the consumer; largely because states earn around 20 percent of their sales taxes from automobile retail, but also because car dealerships account for, on average, 7-8 percent of employment. [Source: Lafontaine & Morton]

Ruggles writes: This is the first misnomer. The reason for state franchise law is to protect Dealers from their Suppliers. A Dealer makes a SIGNIFICANT investment to represent an OEM's products. That Dealer is then in in a position of subjugation to that supplier without significant protection other than the traditional franchise agreement. The supplier could over supply or under supply on a whim. The supplier could provide premium stock to a competitor while withholding premium stock from the original Dealer. The supplier could make unreasonable demands on the original Dealer and use the control of inventory supply, compensation for warranty repairs, etc. to coerce Dealer. Without Dealer protection the supplier could open a factory owned store near the franchise Dealer, and under sell that dealer to drive them out of business. This is the primary reason for Franchise laws.

This model was beneficial to both manufacturers and retailers until the advent of the Information Age in the late nineteen-eighties. With the arrival of global instantaneous information sharing and online automobile sale, disintermediation occurred—that is, the role of the retailer became superfluous (or at least very much different). Cutting back on its number of dealerships has been a key means for GM to reattain profitability. [Source: Bodish]

Ruggles writes: The model is STILL beneficial to both OEMs and Retailers.

Disintermediation has NOT occurred, at least not yet. Cutting back on the number of its Dealerships was NOT a key means for GM to regain profitability. GM's customers are its Dealers. Consumer end users are the customer of their Dealers. Getting rid of customers doesn't help an auto OEM become profitable. GM realized their mistake and reinstated many of the terminated Dealers with some urging from Congress. The story behind how Team Auto came to the conclusion that reducing Dealerships helped OEM profitability is a long one. Looking through this blog one will find numerous columns on the subject. But if one wants to read the most scathing criticism of that mistaken thinking, read the SIGTARP report on the auto bailout (such as HERE).

Yesterday, Automotive News reported that Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk (the same billionaire entrepreneur who plans to build a colony on Mars and die there himself, “just not on impact”) will “consider federal options” in his battle to overturn automobile franchise laws.

Ruggles writes: Actually, Elon Musk is NOT seeking to overturn automobile franchise law. He is looking for the means for Tesla to own its own Dealerships. This is not a problem in most states as long as there are no Tesla franchised Dealers. Musk plans to have NO privately owned franchised Dealers in any state, or so he thinks, UNTIL he realizes that expansion is limited by his own personal finances and having franchised Dealers might benefit him and his company. Personally, I have no problem with Tesla owning its own stores, and don't think anyone else should either, as long as Tesla isn't competing against any franchised Telsa dealers. But he did run afoul of the Texas auto franchise law, and that is where the legal action is taking place. Read Maryann Keller's statement about the matter in this blog.

He tweeted a link to a petition calling for the same on the White House’s website (as of this writing it had just over 5000 signatures). Musk runs Tesla Motors on a “mall-based” retail network, which dealers in Texas and elsewhere have alleged violates many states’ laws.

David Hyatt, a spokesman for the National Automobile Dealers Association, responded to this petition’s claim that franchise laws “stifle the auto industry, keep prices of new vehicles up and reduce consumer choice,” stating that “the franchise system is good for consumers, good for communities and good for the economy. Manufacturers that sell their vehicles directly to consumers – and don't let anyone else sell that vehicle – eliminate competitive pricing.”[4]

Ruggles writes: Yes, the state franchise laws stifle the auto industry to the point they have only sold as many as 17 million new vehicles in a year. So we can sell what, 20 million without Dealers? Who will deal with the tradeins and do the warranty work? If you want to see new vehicle prices rise, get rid of the franchise Dealers and leave it to the OEMs. Is anyone familiar with the Ford Collection experiment which failed miserably?

Yet allowing manufacturers to sell cars directly to the consumer could very well reduce inventory costs, and whether it does should be left to be seen. In other words, if retailing actually increases competition and lowers prices, then dealerships will survive the deregulation of the automobile franchising system.

Ruggles writes: It won't be seen any time soon. There is NO EVIDENCE that manufacturers selling directly to consumers will save inventory costs. NONE.

Now this is an arbitrary sum up. Why should the purpose be to lower prices? The mission is to let the competitive market determine prices. We're not going to see any deregulation of the automobile franchise system. Dealers have made BILLIONS of dollars of investment in their businesses based on the franchise system. The numbers are so high there is no way for OEMs to finance their own dealer network, and they know it.

the prof (Smitka) writes [originally April 23rd, 2013]: Whether dealers are “necessary” is something we’ll talk about; it’s good that you picked up the Tesla, which is attempting to circumvent state franchise law with Texas as a test case. Auto distribution was a key, probably the key, institution in the development of franchising; fast food is strictly post-WWII but as we’ll read, autos date to the 1920s. The case is much more complex than just physical distribution and inventory costs; on a regional basis swapping among dealers addresses the latter, because you can (potentially) sell cars held by others, but selling out of inventory is more profitable. However, a dealership also provides for the purchase of used cars (and then their sale), arranges finance, and handles service. “The Factory” has found that an impossible business to run as part of a large organization, and not just in the US but also in Japan, Germany, the UK and emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India. That ought to suggest that the issues are rather more complex.

So we might instead ask: what might make Tesla different? Or is this a transitional pattern (which, by the way, ties up a lot of capital)?

Bodish, Gerald R. (2009). "Economic Effects of State Bans on Direct Manufacturer Sales to Car Buyers." Department of Justice Economic Analysis Group Competition Advocacy Paper #09-1 CA.

Lafontaine, Francine and Morton, Fiona Scott (2010). “State Franchise Laws, Dealer Terminations, and the Auto Crisis.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24:3 (Summer), 233–250.

Martí, Eric, Garth Saloner, and A. Michael Spence (2000). "Disintermediation in the U.S. Auto Industry." Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Case Number: EC-10.

Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Why are there still car shows?


This is the third in a series of guest posts by Mike Smitka's students, drawn from the Economics 244 course blog.
...marketing has changed, auto shows haven't...
Shanghai Auto Show
The marketing "world" today is significantly different than that of 40 years ago, but motors shows today are remarkably similar to those of the 1960's. As the Shanghai Motor Show of a few days ago came to a close, it occurred to me that car shows in general seem to have lost much of their original purpose, or at the very least have not adapted to the internet.
First, given the ease with which the cars are frequently discovered before they even make it to the show, the main purpose of showing off vehicles which the public has never seen before doesn't seem to make sense. Take the new BMW X4 – virtually no one was surprised at the design, because it was available on the internet long before the show. Secondly, the argument that the purpose of the shows is to get as much exposure as possible for new vehicles also seems to fail, because the companies could just as easily provide images of the cars (which is what the vast majority of people see anyway, given that most people are not able to attend these shows) via the internet.
Perhaps one could make the argument that the sense of festivity associated with these shows creates publicity that would otherwise not exist, but given the high costs associated with auto shows, that argument doesn’t quite seem to hold water. It seems to me that the PR departments associated with these shows will find ways to show off their vehicles significantly more cheaply via the internet. Unless there is a big piece of the puzzle that I am missing, it seems likely that motor shows will at the very least be scaled down significantly.
...Blake Grady...
The Prof: I think that’s an empirical question. How many people visit? – the big January show in Detroit — formally, the North American International Auto Show — attracts over 100,000 and gets exhibitors with cars many people may never otherwise see up close. Furthermore, people like to kick tires, and an auto show beats schlepping from dealership to dealership, indeed car companies hope it will be a prelude to that. Think of this co-location as a positive externality.
For the big shows, there's another positive externality: having lots of journalists in the same place at the same time, you can get more people to your product announcement than if you did it independently. Part of the attraction is the cars; part is that lots of executives show up and make themselves available for interviews. If you're from the New York Times, as our dinner with Bill Vlasic [and reading his book] made clear, you've got good access to senior management, year-in and year-out. Bzut if you're from a "small" publication — a Japanese car magazine or Polish newspaper – you can't just call up GM's CEO and expect a callback. Finally, there's an auto journalist motto: eat free or die. You don't go thirsty, either. (Thanks to Ward's Auto Dealer I attended the Chrysler [journalist] Christmas party last year, there was clear disappointment that so few execs were in attendance.) The bottom line is that these journalists are all filing stories, lots of newspapers and other outlets highlight the shows and carry reviews. Critically, internet content doesn't just appear out of thin air: the car shows all have their journalist previews a day (or two full days) before the shows open.
Hoopla helps, and is expensive to generate on your own. So as an economist, let’s call this another positive externality.
Are shows crucial to car nuts? No. Yet … the car companies need to get someone to generate the content that car guys seek out. Auto shows have their role.
That said, some shows have fallen by the wayside, when too few auto companies attend and sponsors can't recoup their venue costs. Journalists such as those at Automotive News can attend only so many events, and when SAE (the Society of Automotive Engineers) conflicts with an auto show, well, it's not SAE that gives way.






Monday, 22 April 2013

Economics 244: The Auto Industry

I begin teaching a 4-week-long auto industry seminar today; David Ruggles, this site's co-blogger, visits at the end of the week. For the syllabus etc go to the Econ 244 course web site http://econ244.academic.wlu.edu. I do not yet have detailed course readings, but will post my own economist's guide to the industry over the next 2-3 days.     ...mike smitka...

Thursday, 4 April 2013

auto industry picking up

Smitka and Ruggles are keeping busy with auto industry functions. The posts of Ruggles reflect on occasion discussions at one or another specialized industry conference – publications in auto dealership finance and so on make a goodly part of their revenue from running events that bring vendors and industry participants together. [We really ought to do an entry or two on the publication/conference niche!] He also is active in a variety of consulting activities with (varying across time) financial institutions, dealerships, specialized leasing businesses and even OEMs.
Smitka will finish the Winter term on Friday, and then teach a 4-week seminar on the industry this Spring Term at W&L (see the Econ 244 web site), including taking a dozen students to Detroit for a week. He'll also be in Detroit for the black-tie awards ceremony for the PACE supplier innovation competition, and to speak at an April 19th conference at UMTRI in Ann Arbor.
The upturn of the industry has slowed the ability of Ruggles to post frequently – good news in every way! At the other end, Smitka has been focused in teaching about the Chinese economy and a senior seminar on macroeconomics. With his work focus turning towards the industry, he'll be able to post more frequently the next couple months.
So be patient, and please continue to follow our blog!
Smitka & Ruggles