Showing posts with label data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label data. Show all posts

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

Data update: November 2013

Here are assorted data for your perusal – unfortunately due to the government shutdown data releases are delayed or (for certain data) a month will be skipped. For example, the "Employment Situation" was scheduled for November 1st; instead it will come out November 8th. Click on charts to expand to full size. – note that except for a large (negative) blip in the unemployment data, released after this post was written, it's more of the same. With the end of the government shutdown next month will likely see a rebound in the opposite direction.   

First, the first three charts on employment show a slow gain relative to age-adjusted population growth, but only slow. We still are far below normal levels of employment, and there's no particular reason to think that the fundamental structure of the labor markets and participation decisions changed over the course of a few months back in 2008-9 – no big shift in the ability to claim disability, no basic change in unemployment benefits, no change in wages [indeed, this recession reinforces the claim that wages are rigid downward, absent inflation], and I've already corrected the data for boomer retirement. That's clear if you look at the fourth chart of age-specific participation rates. Older workers – those of historic retirement age – are working more than ever [the chart gives data only from 2000, before then employment structures were relatively stable]. But in 2009 the share of people working in prime age brackets dropped, and that of younger people plummeted. Basically, while the economy is growing, it's not growing enough to eliminate the excess capacity of the Great Recession.

The fifth chart is investment. Again, we're out of the trough of 2009, but the level is still below that of some previous recessions. So more of the same: the economy is growing, but not recovering quickly.

That's not true for all sectors. As per the sixth chart, car sales have boomed; suppliers are at capacity, makers are having a hard time launching new vehicles at target levels of output. Still, we remain below the hyped level of the 2000s, and my sense is that sales are leveling out. There's still an overhang of vehicles from the go-go years, though depreciation operates far more rapidly in housing market. At the micro level I'm an example: since I'm stuck with an unsold house, we waited to replace our aging (240K miles 15 years) Volvo until the last minute – it wouldn't restart in the dealership parking lot so they gave me a tradein value lower than the local junkyard. We did buy a new car, as I judged the price differential relative to used cars too slim. However, too many people are underwater on their mortgages, median income [the point at which half the population has higher, half lower income] is falling. So my judgement is that the upside isn't going to move up very fast, despite our rising population. And while I only include the last couple years in the seventh chart, market shares have been relatively stable – with Toyota and Honda at a lower level. The eighth and final chart is of market groups. The top 4 firms have in the aggregate lost share, but over 2012-13 the Big Three and the Detroit Three have been stable.

Finally, interest rates have dropped back to the new normal under the Fed's antirecessionary monetary policy. With the fears of default eased, short rates are essentially zero. Now from day to day rates jump around, but remain extraordinarily low by historic standards, all the way out to 30 years. The yield curve is flat at maturities under 5 years, but there's now a moderately steep differential at longer maturities. With rates low, this isn't reflecting expected inflation but rather that eventually the economy will recover and with it short-term interest rates will rise. The market, however, is pricing that as years away – like 3-5 years. That is unfortunately consistent with my straight-line projection of labor market growth – at the current pace the gap won't be erased until the start of 2019. While I would not be surprised to see things accelerate as the housing stock normalizes ... well, the housing stock doesn't normalize quickly: according to the IRS, which is generous in such things, depreciation takes 30 years, and with median incomes stagnant, half the population isn't in a position to upgrade their "digs".

Date1 month3 mo6 mo1 yr2 yr3 yr5 yr7 yr10 yr20 yr30 yr
10/15/13
0.32
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.37
0.68
1.45
2.11
2.75
3.50
3.78
10/16/13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.15
0.34
0.64
1.41
2.06
2.69
3.43
3.72
10/17/13
0.01
0.05
0.08
0.13
0.33
0.61
1.35
1.98
2.61
3.36
3.66
11/05/13
0.06
0.05
0.08
0.10
0.32
0.60
1.39
2.06
2.69
3.46
3.76

Saturday, 19 October 2013

Data Check: Should you add inventory or build capacity?

One side effect of the government shutdown is a delay in data collection and release. If you're in business, you either track directly data such as that below, or rely on those who do. So this is what the impact looks like for this month... The Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) has not indicated whether some of next month's releases will be delayed as they play catch-up with collecting, verifying and analyzing data.

If you're on edge about whether or not to go ahead with a project, or to increase inventory levels, well, you might wait until you have more information. Since many others will be doing the same, this will exert a modest (but likely measurable) drag on the economy. (If a project is clearly good, as many are, then this sort of informational black hole won't affect your decision. Hopefully you don't find projects that are clearly bad landing on your desk.)

Note that the sequester affects BLS, too – if you want quality and not just timeliness, well, doing the research and improving collection takes money. Special surveys in particular are costly. That's most important if you're affected by new sectors of the economy, because that's where BLS has to redesign or at least extend their data collection.

Updated Schedule of BLS News Releases
Release Reference Period Previously Scheduled Release Date Revised Release Date
Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

August 2013 Wednesday, October 02, 2013 Monday, October 21, 2013
Employment Situation

September 2013 Friday, October 04, 2013 Tuesday, October 22, 2013
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

September 2013 Thursday, October 10, 2013 Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

August 2013 Tuesday, October 08, 2013 Thursday, October 24, 2013
Producer Price Index

September 2013 Friday, October 11, 2013 Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Consumer Price Index

September 2013 Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Real Earnings

September 2013 Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Employment Situation

October 2013 Friday, November 01, 2013 Friday, November 08, 2013
Employment Cost Index

Third Quarter 2013 Thursday, October 31, 2013 Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers

Third Quarter 2013 Friday, October 18, 2013 Being planned
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment

September 2013 Tuesday, October 22, 2013 Being planned
Occupational Injuries and Illnesses

2012 Annual Thursday, October 24, 2013 Being planned
Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

September 2013 Wednesday, October 30, 2013 Being planned
Productivity and Costs (Prelim)

Third Quarter 2013 Wednesday, November 06, 2013 Being planned
Nonfatal Occupational Injuries & Illnesses Requiring Days Away From Work

2012 Annual Thursday, November 07, 2013 Being planned
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

September 2013 Friday, November 08, 2013 Being planned
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

October 2013 Wednesday, November 13, 2013 Being planned
Producer Price Index

October 2013 Thursday, November 14, 2013 Being planned
Consumer Price Index

October 2013 Friday, November 15, 2013 Being planned
Real Earnings

October 2013 Friday, November 15, 2013 Being planned
Business Employment Dynamics

First Quarter 2013 Tuesday, November 19, 2013 Being planned
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment

October 2013 Tuesday, November 19, 2013 Being planned
Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

October 2013 Wednesday, November 27, 2013 Being planned
Producer Price Index

November 2013 Friday, December 13, 2013 Being planned